2026 Midterm Elections: Will Swiss Watches Finally Catch a Break?

Picture a Swiss watchmaker checking the news on Wednesday morning. The headline: Democrats won sweeping victories in the midterms and will take control of the House and Senate next year, according to CBS News projections.  Cue the champagne? Not so fast. To see why, you need to know how badly the last year has gone for the industry.

A year that shook Geneva

Lets start with a number that made the whole industry flinch. Watch exports to America more than halved in September 2025, with the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry reporting a 56% slash. The cause was a steep US tariff on Swiss goods and a later deal brought that rate down, from 39% to 15%. The comeback has been dramatic to say the least. In September 2026, shipments to the US jumped 85.7%, partly because the slump a year earlier makes the comparison so easy. If you look at the bigger picture then the rebound looks somewhat gentler: exports over the first nine months of 2026 are up just 2.7%. 

The tariffs didn’t vanish

Then came a plot twist. The Supreme Court ruled against the emergency-powers tariffs, and brands smelled refunds. Swatch’s US subsidiary said it would apply for a retroactive refund, and Breitling’s CEO spoke of “significant amounts.” Rolex, true to form, declined to comment. Even so the chances of success are still unclear, because lower courts now have to decide.  Meanwhile, the White House kept going. Only the emergency-powers tariffs were struck down, and a different authority, Section 122, took effect right after the ruling. Smaller players are fighting back too. California dealer Collective Horology sued the administration on July 24 in the Court of International Trade, arguing the new duties bypass Congress. It says it is still waiting on over $164,000 in refunds from earlier tariffs, according to The Hour Markers. 

So what can a Democratic Congress actually do?

Here’s the part the headlines skip. Some think that a Democratic win would bring oversight hearings and symbolic tariff-rollback votes next year. There is even chances of Senator Chuck Schumer’s “End Trump’s Tariff Tax Act” bill resurfacing. The key limit is still that Democrats would still fall far short of a veto-proof two-thirds majority. And therein lies the slight irony. The Constitution gives Congress power over tariffs, but lawmakers have delegated much of that power to the executive branch for decades. Taking it back is a much bigger job than simply winning an election. 

What to watch out for

For watch lovers and industry insiders, the next few months come down to three things:

1. The refund fight: If the courts side with importers, brands and retailers could recover money they’ve already paid.
2. The hearings: Even without rolling tariffs back, a Democratic Congress can put the issue in front of cameras and force answers.
3. The export data: The monthly Swiss figures will show whether the US rebound is real demand or just a flattering comparison with last year’s slump.
   

The midterms changed who controls Congress, but they didn’t repeal the imposed tariff. The new majority can add pressure, hold hearings and force votes, and the White House can still block any bill that reaches it. For Swiss watchmakers, that means a stronger voice in Washington than before, but no instant reset so while this is a cause for celebration, the real fight is yet to break out.